New Delhi: With as many as 690 seats up for grabs, the upcoming elections to the five states are an important test for the two defending national parties — the BJP and Congress — and regional players like the SP, TMC and the AAP in terms of their national ambitions and plans against the BJP and PM Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The results will confirm whether the minority Muslim and anti-BJP vote banks stack up against the saffron party or split to its advantage, say observers. Punjab, meanwhile, will also test the potential of farmers as a political force While the BJP is defending existing governments in UP, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, in Punjab, it is trying to emerge on its own in a new avatar minus the Akali Dal.
Will reflect Priyanka’s leadership skills
- BJP is defending four of five states and staking a claim in Congress-ruled Punjab in a new avatar
- The performance in Punjab and UP will also be seen as a reflection on Priyanka’s leadership skills and determine her future in the Congress
For the Congress, meanwhile, Punjab elections are important from the point of fundamental existence in the face of a tough challenge from the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP.
Notably, Congress’ 20 per cent seats in the Lok Sabha come from Punjab. Likewise, of the BJP’s total Lok Sabha seats, almost 20 per cent are from Uttar Pradesh. Not just the Congress needs to return to power in Punjab, it also has to make a decent breakthrough in other states to remain relevant.
For the saffron party, the biggest challenge is Uttar Pradesh, where the results also have the potential to affect Presidential elections scheduled later this year.
Any dent in the Assembly elections, particularly in UP, may affect the number game of the BJP in the electoral college. With 403 seats, the UP Assembly accounts for a vote value of 83,824 — that is around 15.25 per cent of MLAs in the electoral college.
For the party that banks on optics and popularity of PM Modi, the digital format of electioneering is expected to be more beneficial for the BJP given its deep-rooted party network and strong booth management.
While the SP is drawing crowds in UP, the AAP has emerged as a strong challenger in Punjab and a talking point in Uttarakhand, UP and Goa.
Observers say elections will also answer several questions that will affect the politics across the country.
If the Congress returns in Punjab, the win will be attributed to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi.