NEW DELHI: After the US bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, India sought a “de-escalation” and suggested “dialogue and diplomacy” as the way forward even as it braces to walk the “diplomatic tightrope” between Tehran and Washington.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for de-escalation when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called him up on Sunday. A statement of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said, “President Pezeshkian briefed the PM in detail and shared his perspective on the current situation in the region, especially the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.”
The MEA further said, “The PM expressed India’s deep concern at the recent escalation in the conflict. The PM conveyed that India was on the side of peace and humanity. In this context, he emphasised the need for immediate de-escalation and for dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward. He reiterated India’s support for early restoration of regional peace, security and stability.”
Notably, the MEA statement did not mention the US by name for the “recent escalation”.
Kabir Taneja, deputy director and fellow, Middle East, strategic studies programme at the Observer Research Foundation, pointed out, “many countries have not mentioned the US in their responses.”
“India’s position is going to be neutral… In the past, it has not got entangled in regional conflicts. And avoids taking a moral stance,” said Taneja, adding that India was also not in favour of Iran having nuclear weapons.
“India has strong ties with both the US and Iran. It may need to walk a diplomatic tightrope, maintaining its strategic autonomy while avoiding alienating either side,” said an official. This could involve quiet back-channel diplomacy and a careful public stance.
Deepika Saraswat, an associate fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, who is focused on Iran’s foreign policy and geopolitical developments in West Asia and Eurasia, said, “India is being passive for now; it’s letting things play out and hoping for the best.”
Saraswat described “hoping for the best” in the context of further escalation. “One does not know how Iran reacts. If they see it as an existential threat, they may retaliate at US interests,” she added.
Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament has reportedly decided to close the vital Straits of Hormuz. However, the decision is yet to be ratified by Iran’s National Security Council, said reports.
The parliament decision has triggered fears of a spike in global crude oil prices as more than a fifth of all global crude oil and gas supplies transit through the 33-km wide water body that connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Some 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil out of India’s total import of 5.5 million bpd transits through the waterway.
For India, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may impact crude oil prices and lead to disruption in supplies. New Delhi is diversifying energy imports and could also tap into its strategic reserves to cushion the immediate impact.
The other option is to look at alternative sources from Russia, the US and Brazil.
Taneja said Saudi Arabia and Iraq were major suppliers for India. “If shipping is disrupted through the Hormuz, oil prices can go up,” Taneja said.
India’s principal supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Qatar, does not use the Strait of Hormuz for supply. However, the bulk of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, Iran and Kuwait transit through the Strait of Hormuz.